Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)

Key points
  • Reform overtakes Tories for first time in new poll
  • Jon Craig: Farage has election debate swagger after bombshell poll
  • PM says aide's bet on election date 'very disappointing'
  • Corbyn accuses Starmer of 'rewriting history' at Sky event
  • Labour's manifesto pledges|Ed Conway checks the numbers
  • Sky News Daily:Why no surprises in Labour manifesto?
  • Battle For No 10:Catch up on key points from Sky leaders' event
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  • Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans

23:15:01

Goodnight

Thanks for joining us on another manifesto packed day!

Unveiling his party's manifesto, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was offering a "credible" long-term plan to "rebuild our country" if Labour win the election on 4 July.

In an interviewwith Sky's political editorBeth Rigby, he said he "rejects the argument" tax rises are required to rebuild public services - as he insisted there will be "no return to austerity" under a Labour government.

We also saw Plaid Cymru launch its manifesto today, which had "fair funding" in Wales at its core.

To get an overview of how the party manifestos are shaping up so far, head over to our manifesto checker here:

And then there was a landmark poll to end the evening. Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives for the first time, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, says the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

We are are now pausing coverage for the evening. Join us on the campaign trail again in the morning. Goodnight!

23:10:02

Analysis: It was Farage's night as dramatic new poll gives Reform leader jaunty debate swagger

Nigel Farage couldn't have hoped for better news as he strode on to the stage to debate on TV against Penny Mordaunt, Angela Rayner and rivals from the smaller opposition parties.

The dramatic news that his Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll, on 19% to the Tories' 18%, meant he had his trademark letter box grin on his face for virtually the whole debate.

He began by declaring in his opening remarks: "We are now the opposition to Labour!" And he ended by boasting: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt."

Throughout the debate, Mr Farage had a jaunty swagger about him. He laughed and scoffed at the anti-Brexit SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who was standing next to him, and appeared to relish being in a minority of one against the other smaller parties on Brexit and immigration.

The other story of this debate was round two of the bruising battle between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner over Labour's tax plans, while Ms Mordaunt conspicuously left Mr Farage alone and even engaged in some political flirting with him. Why could that possibly have been?

The Commons leader was relentless in her tax onslaught on Labour, from start to finish. But Labour's deputy leader stood her ground and resolutely stuck to the Starmer-Reeves script, even when Ms Mordaunt issued a direct challenge on whether Labour would raise capital gains tax.

It was not in the Labour manifesto, Ms Rayner insisted, repeating Sir Keir's mantra from earlier in the day. That wasn't not a no, then, Ms Mordaunt replied. Once again, as in last week's first TV clash between the pair, in her tax attack on Labour she was like a stuck record – but it may stick.

But while Ms Mordaunt tore into Ms Rayner relentlessly, she uttered not a word of criticism of Mr Farage. It looked like an indication that the Tories are terrified of him and that the party leadership may eventually buckle and do a deal with him before 4 July.

When it was her turn to ask an opponent a question, after Ms Mordaunt had challenged her on capital gains tax, Labour's deputy leader tackled her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

It was a firecracker of a question and one which the Tory cabinet minister answered so deftly and equivocally that she appeared to be engaging in cosying up to the Reform UK leader – politically speaking, of course! - rather than giving him the cold shoulder.

She told the audience that like Mr Farage she was a Brexiteer and she believed that if you couldn't reform European institutions you should be prepared to leave them. Oh!

That, of course, was a reference to quitting the European Convention of Human Rights, which Tory right-wingers are demanding, and a clear courting of support from Tory MPs in a future leadership bid. Shameless, her Tory critics will complain.

But then she declared: "Nigel is a Labour enabler." Yes, that's the official Tory line, but it wasn't exactly a savage put-down. Note, too, that she called him "Nigel" and not Mr Farage.

Never has a rebuff been delivered with such good grace. She's on leadership manoeuvres, make no mistake. Just like last week, when she said Rishi Sunak was "completely wrong" to leave the D-Day ceremony in Normandy early.

In a peroration towards the end, Mr Farage dismissed Labour and the Conservatives as "mushy SDP parties in the middle", condemned the House of Lords as "an abomination" and a "complete disgrace" because it's full of party donors and backed electoral reform.

It was his night, thanks to the opinion poll. The battle for Number 10 may be a fight between the Conservatives and Labour. But the Tories' war with Reform UK is a fight to the death over the future of the centre-right in British politics.

And, if Mr Farage is correct, it's a battle to become the official opposition to a Labour government after the election on 4 July.

22:49:55

Analysis: Starmer is party's all-powerful ringmaster but there's no high-wire act under his leadership

Let's party like it's 1997. That could be the message from Labour's 2024 general election.

Back in '97, the front cover of Labour's manifesto showed a full-page photo of a mean and moody-looking Tony Blair.

The title then was "New Labour, because Britain deserves better" and the campaign song was D-Ream's Things Can Only Get Better.

This year, after 14 years of Conservative rule under five prime ministers, Labour's manifesto has a one-word title - "Change".

But the photo on the front is straight out of the 1997 New Labour playbook: Sir Keir, jacket off, sleeves rolled up, serious - stern, even. Very Tony Blair.

Sir Keir is no Tony Blair, of course. Some Labour veterans compare him to Mr Blair's predecessor, another lawyer, the late John Smith.

And at last week's seven-way electiondebate including the smaller parties, Nigel Farage dismissed Sir Keir as "Blair without the flair".

Indeed, there's nothing flashy about the contents of the 133-page 2024 manifesto. No big surprises. No big controversies either.

Read more here:

22:30:01

Sky News Daily: Why were there no surprises in Labour's manifesto?

It was Labour's turn to launch its election manifesto today. It was a restatement of the party's main policies, with no surprise announcements in the 133-page document.

Sir Keir Starmer reiterated his key pledges including no new taxes on "working people" and a promise of "economic stability".

Niall Paterson digs into Labour's promise of economic growth with Ed Conway, Sky's economics and data editor, and speaks to political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh, who was at the launch in Manchester.

Plus, John McTernan, political strategist and former political secretary to Tony Blair, discusses the politics of their manifesto and whether it matters that there were no new announcements.

👉Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts👈

22:12:32

Election debate: Penny's tax attacks like a stuck record – but may stick

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

Man of the moment Nigel Farage dismisses Labour and the Conservatives as "mushy SDP".

He says the House of Lords is an "abomination" full of party donors and he wants electoral reform and more referendums. "Scotland?" says Stephen Flynn.

This debate has been fought against the backdrop of the bombshell poll minutes before it began showing Mr Farage's Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.

It's a massive turning point in the campaign and Penny Mordaunt's failure to attack Mr Farage during the debate and her apparent flirting with him when Angela Rayner asks if she'd welcome him into the Tory party was highly significant.

Penny Mordaunt has been like a stuck record with her attacks on Labour on tax. But she has indeed stuck at it relentlessly - and perhaps the message will stick.

In the final speeches, Angela Rayner makes a powerful appeal for Labour votes. But Mr Farage then ends as he began with his opinion poll breakthrough, declaring: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt".

21:59:04

Election debate: Is Mordaunt flirting with Farage on joining Tories?

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

The best clash between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner comes when the debaters get the chance to ask an opponent a question.

No surprise, then, that Penny tackles Angela on tax, specifically challenging her to rule out Labour increasing capital gains tax if Labour wins the election.

Labour's deputy leader dutifully sticks to the Starmer-Reeves script: It's not in the Labour manifesto, she says.

Not a no, says Ms Mordaunt.

Then Ms Rayner asks Ms Mordaunt a belter, taunting her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

Her reply is that Mr Farage is a "Labour enabler", but she doesn't actually say No and again she talks about what she and the Reform leader agree about and not what they disagree on.

Penny and Nigel in a bit of political flirting?

21:55:38

Election debate: Why no attacks on Nigel, Penny?

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

The best clash between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner comes when the debaters get the chance to ask an opponent a question.

No surprise, then, that Penny tackles Angela on tax, specifically challenging her to rule out Labour increasing capital gains tax if Labour wins the election.

Labour's deputy leader dutifully sticks to the Starmer-Reeves script: It's not in the Labour manifesto, she says.

Not a no, says Ms Mordaunt.

Then Ms Rayner asks Ms Mordaunt a belter, taunting her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

Her reply is that Mr Farage is a "Labour enabler", but she doesn't actually say No and again she talks about what she and the Reform leader agree about and not what they disagree on.

Penny and Nigel in a bit of political flirting?

21:51:43

Election debate: Farage on a 'dog-whistle tour' – Plaid leader

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

A shouting match on the NHS doesn't produce a clear winner. Seven loud voices all competing at once! Then it's on to education. No better.

Throughout all this, Nigel Farage repeatedly blames an "exploding population" and he and Penny Mordaunt both attack Angela Rayner on Labour's VAT on private schools. Predictable.

After an ad break the debate moves on to migration and Mr Farage mentions the "population explosion again". He says: "We voted Brexit to reduce the numbers coming in."

To begin with the debate on migration is not a shouting match, despite the politicians' opposing views. The civil exchanges don't last long, however.

Mr Farage is in a minority of one among the smaller parties. Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth accuses him of going on a "dog whistle Tour". Sharp intakes of breath in the spin room.

When the Plaid leader complains about cutting student's family visas, Mr Farage shouts: "Good! Good! You can't bring your mum to university!"

21:46:51

Election debate: Farage has a swagger about him after overtaking Tories

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

There's a swagger about Mr Farage in this debate. He started by gloating about Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in a YouGov poll and now he's growing in confidence and relishing at taking on Brexit opponents.

He appears to enjoy being in a minority of one in arguments with the leaders of the other smaller parties on immigration and other Brexit issues.

Penny Mordaunt, meanwhile, keeps coming back to the Tory attack on Labour on tax. She's relentlessly on message on the Tory tax assault on Labour.

No mention yet of Rishi Sunak's D-day fiasco from either the opposition politicians or the audience, so no criticism of the PM either!

21:42:48

Election debate: SNP accuses Labour of 'shameful' response over Brexit

The SNP's Stephen Flynn has accused Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner of giving a "shameful" response to a question on Brexit during tonight's ITV leaders' debate.

The seven politicians taking part in the debate were asked if they would seek to rejoin the EU or single market.

"No," Ms Rayner said, saying Labour respected the result of the referendum.

"Shameful, shameful," Mr Flynn could be heard saying.

He later added that his party would "absolutely" seek to rejoin, as did the Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.

For the Conservatives, Penny Mordaunt said: "No, and if you have a Labour government they will take you back in, they will tie you on defence, on migration, on regulation, without any of the benefits of membership."

Nigel Farage said: "No, we are free. Unfortunately we are governed incompetently, but at least they are our mistakes and not somebody else's."

Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)
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